Up until March 2007, many people believed Wikipedia's growth to be exponential. Changes in the rate of growth has prompted a re-evaluation of that, and the current belief is that Wikipedia's growth fits a logisitic-linear growth model.
YOUTUBE 7-h1puxbmk4 At 31:51 this keynote digs deep into Wikipedia's growth rate.
Figure 1 wikimedia ![]()
Figure 1 is a log scale graph, where exponential growth is shown as a straight, ascending line. From 2002 to 2006 Wikipedia grows exponentially. But in March 2006, something strange happens: growth of Wikipedia article creation and editing slows down.
Logistic curves are prominent in ecology, where exponential growth is bounded by limited natural resources.

WikiWikiWeb Growth webpage ![]()
The biological analogy is obvious: as Wikipedia grows, the opportunity to make novel contributions shrinks. As the keynoter above notes, this leads to an almost Darwinian result -- shrinking opportunities lead to increased patterns of conflict and dominance, which is what we have seen on Wikipedia in recent years.
The question remains: why are resources limited? Certianly in other domains (scinetific publishing, for example) there are no such limits.
The argument over Kate Middleton's Wedding Dress provides a good example of how scarcity comes about in Wikipedia. Early gaps in coverage are seen as opportunities for expansion; later gaps are seen as proving the existence of some unspoken Wikipedia canon.
Counterexamples: Russian Wikipedia is in an exponential growth pattern to 2010, but at a much smaller factor. Might be useful to think about why. png ![]()